A fractional epidemiological model for prediction and simulation the outbreaks of dengue fever outbreaks in Sudan

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop a fractional epidemiological model for dengue fever in Sudan as well as simulate the model by utilizing real data and the Adam-Bashforth and Caputo-Fabrizio operators to predict the incidence of dengue fever. The results of our model included stability analysis, reproduction numbers, and the existence and uniqueness of remedies. The simulation of the model based on real data revealed that the reproduction number is equal to 10, which indicates that Sudan is experiencing an outbreak of dengue fever. The government may receive a suggestion based on the modeling of the dengue fever prototype for the substantial proportion of dengue cases in Sudan.