Predicting habitat distributions for the endemic fish Garra shamal (Teleostei: Cyprinidae) in the Omani Hajar Mountain under present and future climate change scenarios using MaxEnt

Abstract

Climate change significantly influences ecological habitat and species distribution, which could accelerate the rate of species extinction or increase their vulnerability. The current study aimed to investigate the implications of climate change on Garra shamal (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), a vulnerable and endemic species found in Oman. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in association with ArcGIS (10.8.2) was used to model climate change impacts under current and future projections on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) value of the training set is 0.991, indicating that the model’s prediction was excellent. The contribution rates of Freshwater Ecoregions of the World, mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), terrain ruggedness index, sediment transport index, and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) of Garra shamal were 39.1%, 26%, 13.3%, 9.6%, and 8.2%, respectively. Compared to the current distribution, the total area of the medium-suitable habitat and the least-suitable habitat for Garra shamal under the two RCPs (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) would increase by 1% in the 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. However, the total area of the high-suitable habitat under RCP2.6 in the 2071-2100 would decrease by 0.2% and increase by 0.3% under RCP8.5. Overall, the findings of this study provide insight for decision-makers to develop proactive strategies that could help reduce the consequences of climate change on Garra shamal and their habitats. This study recommends further exploration of the benefits of integrating scientific information for sustainable management, protection, and restoration of Garra Shamal’s suitable habitat and other endangered species in Oman.