Influence Of Seasonal Variability On Malaria Incidence And Clinical Outcomes: Evidence From Madhepura District, Bihar

Abstract

Malaria is a critical social health problem in flood-prone rural areas where the variability in climatic conditions affects the relationship of malaria transmission. This paper determined the effects of seasonal variability on malaria cases and clinical outcomes in Madhepura District, Bihar, by conducting a retrospective cohort analysis on 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of malaria reported in 2012. To study the trend of variations of disease occurrence and severity over time, it was divided into four seasons of the year. The outcomes revealed that there was clear seasonal pattern whereby the highest incidence was recorded during the monsoon season, and then the post-monsoon season and the lowest incidence occurred in winter. Patterns of cases monthly showed a slow increasing trend in the pre-monsoon months, which reached its maximum during peak rainfall. The most vulnerable group was adults between the ages of 15 and 49 years and children were also susceptible to a great extent. The severity of the clinical conditions, such as severe anemia, high parasitemia, and an extended stay in the hospital, were more intense in high seasons of transmission. The results emphasize the fact that malaria incidence and clinical results are highly dependent on such climatic conditions as rainfall, humidity, and temperature. The study highlights the importance of season-sensitive, climate-sensitive malaria control measures to help to minimise disease burden in flood-prone endemic districts.